Ryan’s Hope

Paul Ryan is clearly an ambitious man.  He either wants to be President or Speaker of the House.  That explains why in a recent debate he said didn’t know if humans caused climate change, and that scientists didn’t know either.  Such a statement is designed to appeal to the party’s base and to many of its big money donors.  Those are two groups Ryan will need if he wants to go further in either pursuit.  Which office will he go for?  That’s a question we’ll find out soon enough.

A Party Looking Forward

The GOP has clearly learned its lessons.  The party is making a great break with the past and is marching into the future.  Really?  When you find out that Mitt Romney is in demand as a party surrogate in for the fall campaign it makes you think that isn’t necessarily true.  I get that some people in the party still like Romney and his talk about Russia looks very clairvoyant now but is this really who the GOP wants to associated with?

Does anyone else remember that he lost to Obama 51-47?  Speaking of 47 have people really forgotten his infamous 47% video?  I guess they have if they are really making comments like this:

“There is a movement afoot. . . . I’d tell him, ‘Governor Romney, people here in Wyoming and around the country would encourage you to take another look at it.’ ”

Of course Willard won’t run again.  He knows he wouldn’t even get the nomination this time.  But still for a party that needs a fresh start why they want this guy to hang around is beyond me.

Out For Blood

Paul Ryan’s budget compromise is drawing big attacks from potential 2016 rivals.  Rand Paul called it shameful and a big mistake. Ted Cruz is also opposing the deal and said it was move in the wrong direction.  Cruz also ripped the deal because it preserves funding for Obamacare.  Didn’t the GOP try to shut down the government over that once already?

Marco Rubio has also chimed in against the deal.  If Ryan runs this going to be wrapped around his neck.  In all likelihood this is Ryan’s signal that he is not running in 2016.

Did Paul Ryan Just Commit Political Suicide?

Paul Ryan and Senator Patty Murray unveiled their budget compromise.  Already groups like FreedomWorks, Heritage Action, and the Cato Institute have started attacking the deal.  If they can paint this as either an increase in spending or taxes then Ryan will be linked with two things that the GOP base, in particular primary voters and caucus goers, hate.   That is not something Ryan would want to deal with if he runs for President in 2016.

If anything Ryan’s willingness to work with a liberal Democrat like Murray may signal that he is not running for President in 2016 and is instead putting his efforts into building his power in the House.

Ryan’s Hope

Unlike someone of this Congressional counterparts, like say Cruz and Rand Paul, Paul Ryan is keeping a low profile.  Although he was recently in Iowa, Ryan did not attract the kind of fanfare that Cruz did recently or Chris Christie will when he eventually visits the Hawkeye state.

I still have my doubts that Ryan will run.  Being the VP nominee on the losing ticket is not a great place to start a run for the White House.  Plus, his greatest accomplishment, the Ryan Budget, has been called by some conservative commentators a political suicide note. You don’t imagine that will be  used in 30 second attack ads in both the primaries and of course the general election.

Considering he polls in the middle of the pack, whatever he decides to do will have a big impact the race.  He could be a potential first tier candidate or free up a large chunk of voters for people to fight over.

Either way Ryan’s going to command some attention until he makes up his mind.

Poll Dancing In the Granite State

Apparently Cruz mania has not caught on in New Hampshire yet.  According to a new poll from WMUR Granite State Polls Cruz is trailing in a crowded field.  The results are:

  • Rand Paul 17%
  • Chris Christie 16%
  • Paul Ryan 9%
  • Jeb Bush 8%
  • Scott Brown 7%
  • Ted Cruz 6%

At least 15% of the poll can be thrown up in the air because I have strong doubts that Scott Brown and Jeb Bush will run.   The Christie-Paul feud continues to define the GOP primary in New Hampshire.  They represent deep divisions in the state’s GOP.  Remember the Granite State once had opposite wings of the party in Warren Rudman and Bob Smith as its Senators.

Interesting that Cruz, who captured so much media attention during the shutdown is trailing in the polls.  He did lead in one category –   the candidate people would not vote for under any circumstance. Granted he only gets 8% of that vote but that number has risen a great deal since the summer.