No Action Until 2017

The latest legislative shenanigans prove that nothing will happen on immigration until 2017.   If they can’t even pass a bill to deal with this supposed crisis how are the Republicans ever going to get anything more meaningful in place?

Look for that percentage of the Latino vote to continue to drop.  So in 2016 not only will more Latinos than ever be voting but a smaller percentage than ever will be voting for the GOP.  Good job guys.

Deep Divisions Will Spill Over

As the GOP meets for its annual retreat the subject of immigration reform is coming up.  Not surprisingly, the very deep divisions in the party are starting to come out.  Make no mistake about it, this is going to be a nasty fight in the GOP.  It really puts the different wings of the party at each other’s threats.  In many ways it is a wedge issue for the GOP the way busing and affirmative action used to be for Democrats.

This fight will carry over into 2016.  You can ask Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich how being supportive of the DREAM ACT or a path to citizenship plays with the party’s conservative base.  Is it possible to survive the issue?  Sure, McCain did it gets harder if the party’s anti-immigration wing can unite behind one candidate this time.

Looks Like They’ll Have Boehner to Kick Around

Tea Party Costume party

Boehner tried to make this guy happy. Funny it didn’t work out.

After the shutdown deal was announced many conservative activists were angry and out for Boehner’s blood.   Think about it, there is no way to describe this as other than a big beating.  Obama and the Democrats got little, if any, of the blame and the GOP got no substantial policy changes. Oh, and they made it harder for the party nominee running for Virginia Governor to win.

Faced with that you would assume more people would be echoing perennial over spender Matt Kibbe of FreedomWorks said it was full surrender.  And considering the sway Tea Party groups like FreedomWorks seemed to have over the GOP you would think there would be a real cry from members for Boehner to stop being speaker.

Doesn’t appear that way right now.

Conservative Congressmen like Jim Labrador actually said Boehner had nothing to be ashamed of and Rep. Tim Huelskamp said Boehner stood up to the moderates.

Although much more than being a love or respect for Boehner this is probably more driven but a desire to just get out of the public eye.  The last 16 days have been tough enough – after all Obamacare is more popular now than it was on September 30. 

Will Boehner Get Canned?

s-BOEHNER-large

Think you’ve had a rough time.

Do people think John Boehner will still be Speaker in October 2014?

There will certainly be some on the right who will be screaming for his scalp.  Boehner will get the blame for blinking and giving in to Obama. They will say if the party had kept fighting they would have forced the Democrats to surrender at the last minute.

I didn’t say any who says that is correct, just that they have an opinion. For most of the shutdown Boehner seemed to take what they said and the threat of what they would do to him very seriously.

Yet, tor some reason I just don’t see him going until after the 2014 elections.  Right the GOP has endured 16 days of terrible coverage because of an internal fight.   Do they really want to jump right into another messy, internal fight over who should be speaker of the House?

That is also why I don’t see Boehner quitting now.  He will stick it out to avoid the same kind of fight within the party.  If left now it would be an all-out scramble for control, which would make the GOP look even more dysfunctional.

Of course, I also would have laughed if you said the entire Congressional GOP would follow Ted Cruz and pick a fight without knowing how they are going to win it. So don’t bet the farm on my advice.

 

Wall Street Will Save US

At 9:00 am on Wednesday, if the stock market tanks on the threat of a U.S. debt default, you can bet John Boehner, Reince Priebus, and NRCC head Greg Walden will get some angry phone calls.  You know the kind of calls that start with, “You dumb son-of-a-bitch, get this sorted out, NOW!!!”

You see the big financiers of the GOP (and the Democrats too) don’t care about the tri-corner hat crowd when it comes to their investment portfolio.  If the U.S. government defaults on its debt obligations then their investments will suffer from the global economic panic that will ensue.  So you can bet by 9:05 am tomorrow Boehner, Priebus and Walden will all be getting an earful.

Will it have an impact?

Does money talk and bullshit walk?

 

That’s a Pretty Easy Question to Answer

Congressman Ted Yoho has a problem. He needs someone, anyone to convince him why we need to raise the debt ceiling.  That’s a pretty simple one, Congressman.  If we don’t raise the debt ceiling the global economy is fucked.

There are numerous policy blogs that can explain that in greater detail.   Erza Klein makes a living doing that over at the Washington Post so feel free to go check his stuff out sometime.

Politically statements like this must terrify anyone at the Republican National Committee  who has a brain.  Being the party associated with the U.S. defaulting means would be an electoral nightmare.  Outside of the core of the GOP voters would punish the party for years if they had that label.

So maybe another answer for Congressman Yoho is that unless he wants to be one of 100 Republicans in the House of Representatives he might want to raise the debt ceiling.

Democratic Shutdown Star

If Ted Cruz is riding a rocket ship after his filibuster, don’t be surprised if a draft Warren movement starts on the Democratic side after this speech:

You don’t hear any strong defenses of government action these days and her remarks certainly touch the hearts of Democrats.  Warren might be the one person Hillary Clinton fears on the Democratic side.