Marco’s Not Doing His Homework

It looks like Marco Rubio is slipping a little at home.  New results from Public Policy Polling show that his approval rating is now 43/45 a year ago it was 51/33.   What is causing this drop? Some will say it is supporting immigration reform.  As the pollster points out:

Floridians say they support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants by a 48/35 margin. Nevertheless only 21% of voters in the state say they agree with Rubio’s stance on immigration, compared to 41% who they disagree.

So while they like the policy they don’t like the politician behind it.  Ouch.  That sounds like people are being turned off by Rubio personally.

This should force him to decide which way he is going to go.  In Florida he can’t run for President and U.S. Senate in the fall of 2016.  So he has to pick which one he’ll do.

Keep in mind Florida is a swing state so he will most likely draw a top-tier opponent who will have lots of money to spend.  That means if Rubio decides to run for re-election he will need to not only raise a big load of cash, he will also need to get the party and its activists excited for him. Pretty hard to do that if you spent all of 2015 and a good part of the winter of 2016 in Manchester or Des Moines.

Rubio is in the same spot as John Edwards.  He has skills and ambitions but he can’t go for the Presidency without giving up his Senate seat.  Hopefully he’ll exercise better judgment than Edwards did.  Then again that shouldn’t be too hard…

I Can Be Your Friend Marco Rubio Style

It seems Marco Rubio will do almost anything to get back in conservatives good graces after daring to support immigration reform.  The Florida Senator has just issued his first endorsement of the 2014 cycle.  He is putting his muscle behind Arkansas Representative Tom Cotton in his Senate campaign.

Cotton was a big critic of the immigration reform bill pushed through by the bipartisan Gang of Eight that Rubio was apart of.  Add this to his recent appearance with past immigration reform critic Ken Cuccinelli and you get the sense the guy will do almost anything to make up to conservatives he ticked off when he supported reform.

I know it’s a political calculus but it does look a little pathetic to go around supporting all of the people in the party who are opposed to one of your biggest accomplishments.

 

Where’s the Love in the Sunshine State

Marco Rubio didn’t get the reception he thought he’d get at the Americans For Prosperity event over the week.  After Rubio did his water bottle joke (ok, we get it, you can make fun of yourself) some in the crowd were not so thrilled to see him:

Reading some of the comments below the You Tube video terms like RINO and traitor are thrown around.  So it’s clear this is going to be an issue that will haunt him for a while.

Although I was surprised he didn’t just flood the room with supporters who would applaud his every word.  After all, the event was in his home state.

 

Believe the Hype on Immigration Reform and the GOP

Republican pollster Whit Ayres wants everyone to know that GOP primary voters actually support immigration reform.  In an interview with the Washington Post Ayres says:

“Our research has shown that roughly one third of Republican primary voters will never support a path to citizenship no matter what the conditions.  But two thirds will support a path to citizenship as long as the conditions are strict and rigorous.”

On the face of it you read that quote and think great we meet one or two conditions and we’re set.  Here’s the thing, what the conditions that Republican voters want met may have nothing to do with reality for two reasons.  One, they may be impossible to meet (i.e. militarizing the border or making sure no one enters the country illegally before we proceed with reform) either logistically or politically.  Second, Republican voters may not ever believe they are being met even if they are.

The second one is particularly a problem because if you have people who are opposed to reform under any circumstance than they are just going to keep repeating the message that the border can’t or won’t get secured.  For proof of this let’s look at Senator McCain engaging with a friendly voter (the fun starts around 1:10):

No matter what McCain said that guy and other people in the room were not going to believe him about border security.  All the facts, figures, and data couldn’t cut through that guy’s guy level feeling.  There a large number of Republicans like that guy who say “yeah, if you can fix the border citizenship is fine” but they don’t believe the border’s ever getting fixed so they’ll never support immigration reform.

For someone like Rubio in 2016 this is going to be a real problem.  He’s going to go into an environment where people like Cruz and Rand Paul have a vested interest in making sure people stay angry about immigration because they’ll take that anger out by not supporting Rubio or other pro-reform candidates.

So Whit Ayres can take all the polls he wants, you should still believe the hype about GOP voters and immigration.

What makes Marco different from the other guys

You will probably hear that Rubio has nothing to fear over supporting immigration reform.  They will argue there are others in the race (Jindal, Christie and Bush) who have supported immigration reform.

However all of the other people are outside Congress.  They never have to vote for the bill and can quickly find the worst part of the bill and say “I’d never support that part of the bill, which Marco Rubio helped push through.”  So they can cherry pick it to make sure everyone knows Rubio helped make the bad stuff a reality.

Second, Rubio is Latino. Any racial element to opposition to immigration reform will be taken out on him as the most prominent Latino politician in the country.

Rubio has to figure out a way to change the subject quickly.

Have a hard time believing it

A new poll has come out saying:

A solid 65% majority of Republicans support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants if it is coupled with substantially increased border security

This is from a poll by Americans for a Conservative Direction, which is a conservative group that includes former Mississippi Governor and RNC Chair Haley Barbour and wants to reform immigration while securing the border.

Now you may see that poll and think it is a slam dunk to get immigration reform through.  The group even says immigration reform is supported by 75% of primary voters who consider themselves Tea Party members.

However, there is a caveat people should be aware of and that is the phrase “substantially increased border security.”  Yes, if people believe the border is or can be secured than they will support immigration reform.  But if you listen to conservative activists and Congressional Republicans it is clear they don’t believe the border is being secured.  Want proof, listen to this:

So you can take that poll with a grain of salt.

 

The voice of reason?

In a sign of how things are in the GOP, the following quote is seen as the guiding wisdom of the House GOP:

“It would hurt Republicans, and I don’t think you can make an argument otherwise. Two out of every three of the new citizens would be Democrats.”

These words of wisdom came from Steve King (R-Iowa).

Who is Steve King?

Sadly, he is not the writer or the Shining or Carrie. No, Steve King is a major league teapartier. He is a rabidly against immigration reform, and is a hardcore social conservative. He received an 87% score from FreedomWorks and a 100 percent rating from the National Right to Life Committee.

Of course because he is from Iowa what he says, and his strong following among Iowa grassroots conservatives, is something any Republican thinking of running for President needs to pay serious attention too.   You can bet he will try to have a big impact on who gets out of Iowa.

If you are Marco Rubio or Chris Christie he is someone you hope goes away very quickly.  But good luck with that one guys.

 

 

Immigration reform may die in the town hall

 

August is when Congress goes on a month long recess (I know it’ll be hard to tell because they’ve done so much this year) and many members hold town hall meetings.  These are a great opportunity for constituents to ask members questions and have an open dialogue about the future of our great country.

HA!!

These are really opportunities for the local cranks to come and bitch at members of Congress about all sorts of stuff.  Want an example, check out this gem from 2009:

You can bet there are going to be many contentious town hall meetings.  Topic number one for bitching will be immigration reform. Look for many Republicans to feel the burn when the subject of immigration comes up.  If you need an example of what a mess these may be, just check out Johnny Mac taking a little heat from the folks on Arizona:

If/when the House members get an earful of that stuff you can bet they are not going to move on immigration reform anytime soon.

 

 

Rubio 2016 – A Fetus and Immigrant in every pot

Turns out that Marco Rubio likes controversial issues.  Fresh of off pissing of the majority of the conservative grassroots with his support for immigration reform, now he wants to take on abortion (who can be upset with that).

He is going to sponsor legislation that outlaws abortion after an unborn child is 20 weeks old.  This measure is going nowhere in the Senate but it is a chance for Rubio to try and get back in the good graces of the conservatives he has been ticking off with his work on immigration.

Of course how it plays with swing voters in Northern Virginia or the suburbs of Columbus, Ohio, is another question.

Not good news for Rubio or immigration reform

If the argument from some in the GOP is that passing immigration reform will help them with Latino voters, this poll is not a welcome sign.  Turnouts out among Latino voters Hillary Clinton beats Marco Rubio 66 percent to 28 percent.  The survey from Latino Decisions also shows Vice President Joe Biden leads Rubio 60 percent to 28 percent.

Rubio is favored by Latino Republican voters with 29 percent, followed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie with 14 percent, Bush with 13 percent and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) with 11 percent.

First, it’s no surprise Rubio is the top GOP candidate among Latino voters.  The guys is the most prominent Latino Republican politician in the country after all.  Secondly, this does give opponents of immigration reform in the GOP a number to beat immigration supporters over the head with.  You can almost hear Beck or Limbaugh argue “Even with a big amnesty supporter like Rubio latino voters do not support the GOP.  And what does having a pro-amnesty candidate do to suppress conservative turnout.”