No One Saw this Coming

Jeb Bush is going to actively explore a run for the White House.  I wonder what he’ll find?  Maybe diamonds, gold, a lost civilization, or a many rich, older,white guys who are really pumped to have yet ANOTHER Bush in the White House.

Hard to say isn’t it.

This does have HUGE implications on the race.  First, Chris Christie is no longer the favorite to win the backing of Bush Republicans (what some call the Establishment).  Bush will have instant access to their money and support, which Christie was banking on for a run. Second, Marco Rubio will feel the squeeze.  Although his star was already on the decline having Bush in the race means many Florida people will be torn between the two and probably go with the elder over the Senator.

Third, Democrats can no longer assume 2016 will be a slam dunk.  If Bush is the nominee he will be a tough opponent.  He puts Florida, Colorado and Nevada back in play and takes away the chance for the Democrats to take Arizona or North Carolina.

A Fool And Their Money

We all know the old saying about a fool and their money being soon parted.  Hillary Clinton really wants to prove that.   According to sources she team is renting out offices in mid-town Manhattan that are:

 Her expansive new space includes nine offices, 14 workstations, one large conference room, and features modern finishes and white walls. It also features floor-to-ceiling glass doors, and windows with sweeping views of Times Square

While I am not expert on real estate prices, how much is that going to cost?  Offices in mid-town Manhattan that size will probably run you at least $250,000.00 a month.  That’s at least $3 million a year folks.  Think of how many offices you could open up in other states for that amount.  Or how many staffers you could hire.  Remember that doesn’t include electricity.  That’s at least another $1000 or so a month.

Clinton made this same mistake last time by having a big office just outside DC.  In this age of super pacs and volunteers being able to make phone calls online why would you need an office like that?  Rick Santorum didn’t have a physical campaign office after Iowa and he went on to win another primaries or caucuses in another 10 states.  Just something to think about.

The only question is will someone step up to burst her bubble, again.

Hillary Clinton Is Overrated Part 1

Right now everyone assumes the Democratic nomination and the Presidency are Hillary Clinton’s for the taking.  The nomination and campaign, according to this line of thought, are merely formalities.  Don’t believe it.  Far from being this unstoppable juggernaut Hillary Clinton is actually very beatable.

Hillary Clinton

When she faces real opposition she doesn’t end up smiling.

Consider this, who has she ever beat in a political contest?  Rick Lazio.  No offense to the former Congressman but Carl Paladino clobbered Lazio the last time he ran statewide.  So we aren’t talking about someone who could sell ice to the eskimos.  and some no-name in 2006.

Remember in 2000 that was a Presidential race year and the Democrats won New York comfortably (Gore beat Bush 60-35) so Clinton winning by 12% is not that remarkable.   It is also worth noting that Clinton did under perform the party statewide.

In 2006, Clinton faced token opposition in a great year for Democrats.

So when has she faced a real challenge?  In 2008, she finally got to take on someone with equal resources and I think it’s pretty clear who was the better politician in that race.  Not that I want to be just giving speeches.

Could it happen again?  Absolutely.  There are people in the Democratic Party who would take her.  Who?  Stay tuned and we’ll talk more.

Someone is Going to Challenge Hillary

This blog normally focuses on the Republican race for 2016 but it is noting there will be another contest.  Yes, Hillary Clinton is way ahead in the Democratic primary polls but SOMEONE will challenge her.  She is not going to go unopposed.

Who will it be?  That is the more interesting question.  It will be someone who is very ambitious, does not mind pissing off the establish, and wants to be ready for 2024.  In addition, this person may also have a few key issues they disagree with Clinton on and will make that a big part of their campaign.

Who is that person?  Some are guessing it could be Elizabeth Warren.  That would be an interesting challenge for Clinton because Warren takes away one of Clinton’s biggest messages, “vote for me, I have a vagina.”

I honestly don’t know who will step up.

I do know it may have a big impact on the GOP race because in states like New Hampshire it will pull away independents who would consider voting or either a more moderate or anti-establishment GOP candidate.

Those two are not contradictory statements when it comes to New Hampshire.  Remember in 1996 and 2000 Republican independent-minded voters went from Pat Buchanan to John McCain.  The ability for that kind of cross over could be hurt by a populist Democrat running.

You can take one thing to the bank, somebody will step up to take on Hillary.  How well they do will impact the entire race.

 

BigMac Wins It

For a guy who just barely pulled it out, Terry McAuliffe sure didn’t act like it.  He knows he has a great deal of work to do to now govern Virginia.  McAuliffe’s mention of Thomas Jefferson’s 1800 Inaugural was a sign that he wants to move beyond the campaign.

Somewhere the Clintons are smiling, knowing that their guy is now in charge and will give them a big leg up on 2016.

At the same time you can hear both wings of the GOP ringing their hands over what might have been.  These differences will soon play themselves out in 2014 and beyond.