Slowness Before the Speed Up

Nothing is probably going to happen between now and January 1.  However, once we hit the New Year look for people to start making announcements and jumping into the race.  First, it’ll be exploratory committees and then before you know it crappy bio/policy books and then full blown announcements.  By February 25, the start of CPAC, look for at least 7-8 Republicans to at least have exploratory committees.

Is This the First Shutdown Primary

Mississippi Senator Thad Cochran, who has strong ratings from the National Right to Life, Gun Owners of America and Americans For Prosperity, is getting a primary opponent.  It appears Chris McDaniel is going to challenge Cochran.

Why is Cochran getting challenged?

It appears in Mississippi he is a RINO.  Cochran was just censured by the Marshall County GOP Committee for voting to allow the U.S. Senate to pass a spending plan which included funding for Obamacare.

McDaniel can smell blood in the water and thinks this is the right time to take Cochran out.  Because this is Mississippi the GOP primary is the general so keep an eye on this one.  If voters in Mississippi are willing to throw out a veteran legislator for a Tea Party favorite then you know the GOP primary electorate wants true believers more than anything else.  Delivering the goods for your state with Washington money is not enough, these folks want a fight and are willing to get behind whoever is going to lead the charge.

The 2016 race will be set against this backdrop, that is why Ted Cruz should never be counted out and Chris Christie should be terrified.

Where’s the Love in the Sunshine State

Marco Rubio didn’t get the reception he thought he’d get at the Americans For Prosperity event over the week.  After Rubio did his water bottle joke (ok, we get it, you can make fun of yourself) some in the crowd were not so thrilled to see him:

Reading some of the comments below the You Tube video terms like RINO and traitor are thrown around.  So it’s clear this is going to be an issue that will haunt him for a while.

Although I was surprised he didn’t just flood the room with supporters who would applaud his every word.  After all, the event was in his home state.

 

The Race Never Takes A Holiday

It looks like there is no rest for the GOP candidates.  Over the weekend Americans for Prosperity will host its Defending the American Dream Summit.  Potential candidates including  Senators Rafi Cruz and Marco Rubio will be there to speak.  Attendees will also get to hear the Ricker and and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. 

This mini-CPAC will also feature speakers like Michelle Malkin and Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI).  Don’t know if there will be a straw poll. 

As we get video we will post it tomorrow.  Unlike the GOP candidates I can take today off. 

Lamar! Loses to Mystery Man

lee-corsox-inset-community

You’re poll? Yeah, I was just thinking about that too.

Apparently a new poll is circulating showing Lamar! Alexander losing to a “credible conservative” candidate 49.5-44.5.   Someone in the blogosphere are jumping for joy over this story.  I am guessing a few were at the hardware store buying shovels to bury Lamar!’s career.

Not to go all Lee Corso, but not so fast my friends.

This poll should be taken with a grain of salt. Lamar! is not being measured against a real person.  Before people are going to get rid of someone who was governor for 8 years and has 12 years in the U.S. Senate they need a real person to vote for.  When you ask someone if they support a “credible conservative” you allow their mind to go and create a picture of someone perfect and then yes, of course, they pick Mr. Perfect over a real person.

However, Mr. Perfect has never run for anything.  Nope candidates are real people and who the people really are matters.  You don’t think so?  You think there are races at are just impossible to lose?  Well, I have two words for you – Terry McAuliffe.

In a border sense this speaks to the restlessness in the GOP electorate.  Let’s be honest Lamar! will have that seat for life and is a reliable vote for the GOP position on most legislation.  He has favorable ratings from the NRA, Right to Life and Americans for Prosperity, and the American Conservative Union Club for Growth.

Yet, those are not enough to  keep many conservative activists happy.  For example, when asked about Lamar!’s support for  immigration reform, which the poll tactfully labels “supporting amnesty for 11 million illegals” it finds 70% of Republican voters  are “less likely” to support Alexander.

If this is the way the party base is feeling across the country then if someone can unite that feeling behind them (unlike 2008 and 2012) then the party’s establishment really could be in trouble.

That is unless the establishment changes the rules to get rid of proportional delegate allotment and cuts the number of debates.  Oh wait, that’s happening…

He’s Making a Four Year Commitment

Say what you want about the Ricker (and Lord knows there is plenty to say) he seems to have learned something from his last run.  Instead of trying to jump in with less than 6 months to go before the first caucus, like he did in 2011, Perry is now making this a four year project.

How else do you explain his decision to speak at American’s For Prosperity’s Defending the American Dream Summit in Orlando at the end of August.  No offense to Mickey Mouse, or the poor bastard who has to dress up like him and sweat their ass off, but why else would you go to Orlando in late August unless you were running for President?

That also explains why Bobby Jindal, Red Ted Cruz, and Rubio will also be there.

The Ricker will have a chance to develop his message and its delivery, unlike last time.  Of course this field is going to be much more competitive than the 2012 crowd.

 

Does Christie even want to run?

It sounds like a ridiculous question but his recent behavior does raise the thought.

First, he schedules the special election in October 2013.  That gives his Republican appointee about 25 minutes in the U.S. Senate.  Instead of having the election in November 2014 which would have given that person time to first help the Republicans fight against Democratic legislation and also build up enough name ID to potentially (if many things fell into place, most of which are unlikely but you never know) hold on to the seat or at least make a good showing (forcing the Democrats nationally to spend resources they will need to hold onto seats in Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina and New Hampshire).  This pissed people off.  Including a certain talk show host, who’s kinda popular with GOP primary voters:

Now it comes out Christie has been coy about endorsing Steve Lonegan.  Now I’m no Steve Lonegan fan.  He has almost no chance of winning the special election, but the guys is a die hard conservative on social and economic issues. He was American’s For Prosperity’s New Jersey State Director, which means he is connected to tea party groups on a national level.  Lonegan is the kind of guy grassroots Republican across the nation like.  He is the kind of person Christie will need to say good things about him when he runs in the early primary states or at the very least not go around saying “Chris Christie is no conservative and here’s why…”

Why will Christie need someone to endorse his conservative bona fides. I think these video explains it all:

He’s establishment, he’s McCain, andhe’s secretly a Democrat.  If Limbaugh is saying this now you can imagine how heated this will get once we get pasted 2014.

Christie needs to stop the bleeding if he is serious about running in 2016.