Let’s start with the obvious, the defeat of Eric Cantor killed immigration reform until the Democrats retake the House of Representatives. Don’t give me this stuff about a big Democratic victory in 2016 will push the GOP to finally address the issue.
If the Democrats win big in 2016 but the GOP retains the House of Representatives what does that mean? It means that those members represent district that are almost immune to the national political trends and something different is keeping them in office. What could that be?
I am sure there are many socio-economic-demographic factors for this and of course there is gerrymandering. If your district is drawn in such a convoluted way as to guarantee GOP representation regardless of what happens nationally (remember in 2012 on the Congressional level Democrats got a million more votes than the GOP and still couldn’t retake the House) than a members only incentive is to keep the GOP primary voting base happy, because the general election is usually a formality in these districts.
It is pretty clear after Tuesday night how the GOP base feels about immigration reform. Isn’t it?