As I said before, much of the attention will be paid to the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate in next year’s elections. I don’t get the fascination. Everyone knows the House is going to stay in the GOP’s hands and even if the GOP retakes the Senate it will be at 52-48 majority (at best).
Neither of these changes will have a big impact politically. Yet in many states what you will see are very competitive races for Governor. Given how the important state houses have been in recent years on issues such as gay marriage, education reform. public employee unions, implementing Obamacare, dealing with immigration and gun control, it makes more sense to focus in 2014 on the governor’s races.
Two that will be fascinating are Illinois and Pennsylvania. It looks like the Democrats have one of their best shots for a pick up in the Keystone State as Governor Corbett trails all of his potential opponents by at least 12 points and is polling only in the low 30’s.
It is not all doom and gloom for the GOP. They have a great shot at retaking the Illinois statehouse. Governor Quinn is slightly ahead or just behind each of this potential challengers but polls only in the low 40’s.
You can bet this one state where the Republican Governor Association, which will be headed by Chris Christie, is going to spend big money. After all, wouldn’t it look good to take the governorship in Barack Obama’s political home state?
Plus, when Christie runs in 2016 having the support in states like Illinois could be a good firewall against problems in more conservative states.