California Dreaming

In 2000, the Bush/Cheney campaign poured resources into California.  They thought was that if they could win the Golden State the election was over.  Given the state’s 54 electoral votes (a fifth of what you need to win) this might seem to make sense.

california_dreaming

Electorally it’s a GOP pipe dream.

Would anyone on the GOP side think of doing that now?  Considering the Democrats have won it in every Presidential election starting in 1992, spending money there now would be seen as electoral suicide.

A new poll shows why this situation will only get worse for the GOP in California.  When you look at the party’s performance among voters under 50 and nonwhite voters things only go from bad to worse.

Of course, some will right this off as California being an anomaly.  Yes, the state was reliably Democratic in 2000 and 2004 but that didn’t stop Bush was winning.

Well true, it is important to remember that in many ways the rest of the country is becoming more like California.  In particular, the rising Latino community and its current support for the Democratic party should be a loud wake up call for all GOP candidates in 2016.

Will it be?  Considering the beating Marco Rubio’s poll numbers have taken since he began supporting immigration reform, it is doubtful  During the primaries you can bet there will be a heavy dosage of immigration talk in the primary.  While the eventual nominee may be in favor of reform (as McCain was) the rhetorical attacks they face maybe enough to turn off Latino voters.

So what could be seen as California dreaming may turn into the GOP’s nightmare.

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