Sometimes in polls the really interesting questions get lost in the shuffle. A new poll from Public Policy Polling is being reported because it shows Democrats leading on the generic Congressional ballot and that lead seeming to come from the shutdown.
In a macro sense that shows a bigger trend but doesn’t get to the specifics. It is the specifics of a campaign – the quality of the candidates, how much money they can raise, their ability to respond to attacks- are what determines who wins in the marginal seats. If you win the marginal seats then you control the House. So take the generic ballot with a grain of salt.
However, there was specific question that was very interesting. Republican voters nationally favor replacing John Boehner as House Speaker with Ted Cruz, by a 40/37.
Think about that for a minute.
Cruz has been in the Senate for less than a year. He’s getting a great deal of blame from some in the media and many of his own colleagues (Peter King and Charlie Dent ring any bells?), for leading the GOP into a ditch. Hell Ken Cuccinelli won’t even admit to being at a campaign event with him for fear of what it will do to his go. Yet, he is more popular with Republicans nationally than the most powerful Republican in Washington, DC.
This reaffirms what I’ve said about Cruz for a while. No matter what they say on MSNBC, CNN, or the Washington Post, Cruz is a real force in GOP and a major player in the 2016 race.