You will hear a great deal of talk about whether the Democrats can retake Congress in 2014 or if the GOP will increase it’s control of the House of Representatives. Ignore it all.
The Democrats got a MILLION more votes at the Congressional level in 2012 and still couldn’t retake the House. Why on Earth are we wasting our time thinking they can do it in an election will have lower turnout?
Does it matter if the GOP goes from 234 to 250 seats? It is either going to be Boehner running things or someone more conservative than he is.
No the real action in 2014 will be in the governor’s races, especially in the Great Lakes region.
In 2010, riding an electoral wave the GOP took governorship’s in big states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Between their confrontations with public employee unions, supporting right-to-work laws, implementing news voter ID laws, opposition to gay marriage and restricting abortion – all the of the governors have touched hot-button issues that rally supporters and enrage opponents. At the same time, they are all in states the Democrats have consistently won at the Presidential level and and been very competitive in for U.S. Senate races.*
So this sets the stage for what could be some heavy weight battles.
Already Pennsylvania’s Attorney General is being talked about as a candidate for governor. Given that Scott Walker from Wisconsin and John Kasich of Ohio are in this mix, how these races shake out will have an impact of the 2016 GOP race. A win by either Walker or Kasich in these states will give them a boost with the national party. Obviously a loss by either will end their careers.
So forget Congress and keep your eyes on the governor’s races.
*Aside from Bush winning Ohio in 2000 and 2004 the Democrats have won them in every Presidential election since 1992 and enjoy a 5-3 edge in the 8 Senate seats.