Is Ryan going to run

Most people assume Paul Ryan is going to run for President in 2016.  They point to his being on ticket with Romney, his youth, Midwestern appeal, being former a state normally carried by the Democrats, his popularity with the party’s establishment and grassroots base, and his stature as being the ideas man of the House (the often cited and intellectually impossible Ryan Budget).

But there are signs he may not be running.  Let’s remember that the ticket he was on lost.  Usually Vice Presidential nominees on losing tickets don’t have much success running for President (Ferraro, Bentsen, Quayle, Kemp, Lieberman, Edwards and Palin have not exactly lit up the electoral scoreboard.)

Second, he faced his toughest challenge last time.  In past elections Ryan would easily break 60%.  In 2012, against Rob Zerban he only pulled 54%.  Now I don’t think Ryan is going to lose his seat but he needs to spend some time at home to sure things up (which is time off the Presidential trail).

Third, he is supporting the comprehensive immigration reform bill.  The Washington Post reports he has been working behind the scenes with Democrats to build support for something similar to what the Senate did.  This a non-starter with the party activists, if you don’t believe me look at Marco Rubio’s sliding poll numbers in Presidential polls.

Lastly, the Post’s story ends on the following note:

His fundraising schedule is now packed with events benefiting fellow House Republicans, not Lincoln Day dinners in key presidential primary battlegrounds. That leaves many assuming he wants to stay in the House, with the gavel at the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee an increasingly likely prize.

Either way, whatever he decides to do it will have a big impact on the 2016 race.

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