You know we love the Polls at the 2016 Elephant Race. Our good friends at Public Policy Polling have a new one from Montana. As of right now the GOP race looks like this:
The top choice of Republican voters in the state for their candidate is Rand Paul. He gets 21% to 13% for Bush, 12% for Christie and Ted Cruz, 10% for Marco Rubio, 9% for Paul Ryan, 6% for Bobby Jindal, 3% for Susana Martinez, and 1% for Rick Santorum.
Big take aways from this is that Rand Paul has the supporters of his father and is starting to move out from being seen as a fringe or protest candidate. For Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum these polls are bad news. I know it’s early but both of them have been around the track and had more national exposure than Paul or Cruz but are trailing them.
Another question is what if Jeb Bush doesn’t run? He gets 13% now, if decides not to run (which I think is likely) where do his supporters go? Christie or Rubio probably seem the most likely choices.
Lastly, what can Rand Paul and his operatives do with these kind of poll numbers? What they need to do is get an early contest out in the western part of the country to give them an early win and build momentum.
Let’s not forget his father did pretty well in Nevada in 2008 and 2012. Granted Romney won the state but a good part of that was due to his obviously strong support from Mormons. This time there will not be a strong Mormon candidate so the Rocky Mountain west could be very open for Rand Paul and his blend of libertarian economics/mixed bag of social conservatism.