There are two reasons why Ted Cruz will probably run in 2016 – Barack Obama and Chris Christie. Cruz knows he has the hot hand right now. He is exciting Tea Party activists and building support among grassroots conservatives. So why run now? You have to strike while the iron is hot.
After giving an amazing speech at the 2004 Democratic convention Barack Obama captured the imagination and hearts of liberal activists across the country. He rode that wave of excitement into a Presidential campaign that started in winter 2007 (after he’d spent fewer than 30 months in the Senate) and eventually ended in the White House.
But what if he had waited? What if he had not run in 2008 and Hillary had got it? Obama would have had to wait 8 years and in that time compiled a voting record with plenty of things to attack and take out of context. Plus 12 years after he burst on the national scene Obama wouldn’t have been the new exciting guy.
What does it look like when you wait? Chris Christie. Think about it, at CPAC 2011 Ann Coulter said this about Christie:
Conservatives aren’t talking that way about him now. Just listen to Michael Savage on Christie.
Why? Because life happens and you never know what you’ll have to do in an unforeseen situation. Do you think Christie wanted Hurricane Sandy to strike and to have have to become Obama’s BFF? Don’t you think Christie knows every shot of him with Obama will be used against him in 2016?
But he had to do what he had to do and will now pay the political consequences (keep in mind I’m not saying Christie did the wrong thing. He’s handled the storm recovery very well, but purely from the POV of his running in the 2016 primary his actions have pissed off many grassroots conservatives and he will pay a political price for that – which I think is worth it to save your state after it’s been hit by a hurricane)
If Cruz is smart (which I think he is, now I may think he’s wrong on policies but I don’t think he’s stupid) he will say that his iron is hot and 2016 is the time to strike. To hyper ambitious people like Cruz it’s always better to be Obama than Christie.